Market Structure Still Bearish, but Bullish Signals Emerging
It's been a while since the last update (over a month actually) but there really hasn't been much to update on the Bitcoin front. Market structure on the higher timeframes has remained heavily bearish, but recently some bullish signs have emerged on the daily and below.
The Bitcoin weekly chart really hasn't changed much in the last several updates and has maintained a bearish structure beginning when it lost the midrange near $8,800 and crossing into clear bearishness when the $8,200 support was broken and price set a lower low. Since then, price has tested new lows on a few occasions but continues to get bought back up and has formed a range. However, price has been unable to gain any traction above $7,600 and there's a clear resistance in the upper $7,000's and price has not even attempted to rally to the key weekly level from $8,200-8,450 and until that level is cleared I can't be outright bullish. Will be more open to upside if the weekly can reclaim $7,800 and the 100 week moving average; until that occurs my primary scenario remains $5,800 and possibly lower down to the 200 week moving average, especially as the 20 and 100 week moving averages look headed towards a death cross.
Resistance: $7,600-7,800, $8,200-8,450
The Bitcoin daily chart is where things start to get interesting. Although BTC is still range bound, price is attempting to regain the 50 day moving average, is flirting with a break of the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders and there was clear demand below the $6,900 support as price has rocketed back above both times. Indicators are always secondary but RSI is flirting with a breakout of the longterm downtrend and OBV is just peaking above it's downtrend line, though still under a main horizontal level. That being said, there's still heavy resistance overhead and there's a hidden bearish divergence starting to surface on the RSI so bulls are far from out of the woods. Ultimately when a range forms I'm hesitant to take any move until it resolves; however, a clear close above the neckline, 50 day moving average and OBV + RSI breaking downtrends would make me look for some long exposure, especially if the daily happens to close above $7,525 resistance. The fact that I'm even looking for potential long scenarios again speaks to the fact that there are far more bullish signals than there were just a few weeks ago but as always, the safe bet is to wait for the range to resolve which will determine market direction.
Support: Main daily level to maintain bullish scenarios is around $7,100; although there is support at $6,900 I wouldn't want to see price revisit it if I'm to maintain bullish ideas.
Resistance: $7,525 followed by $7,721-$7,861
Ethereum has caught my interest recently as price is attempting to close above the ascending triangle formed on the daily and even more notably, price has set two higher lows and is working on a second higher high. However, the weekly level of $140 which is confluent with daily resistance and the point of breakdown, stand in the way of any truly bullish scenarios. That being said, I did pick up a small position and will look to compound on a close above $140, at which point I expect price to reach at least low $150's. I do advise caution until $140 is cleared - zooming into the 4H and there's a strong case to be made for price forming a bear flag or ascending channel during a downtrend as seen below.
I haven't touched altcoins aside from BEAM (a position I actually closed today) in quite a while, but they are starting to pique my interest. I tend to stick to altcoin charts on my Twitter as opposed to here as they don't often require in-depth analysis, but here's a few recent ones.
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