Big day in the cryptocurrency markets given Bitcoin puts in a new monthly, weekly and daily candle. Let's jump right into it.
On the Bitcoin monthly chart there's a clear line in the sand, one which BTC is attempting to regain but it's going to come down to the wire. A clean close above would mark the first since August 2019, though January 2020 certainly came close. I'm going to jump to the intraday 4-hour chart just so you can see how critical this level has been throughout the month.
Bitcoin has been trading in this well-defined range for the entire month of May - right in the middle the blue level is a level that price has reacted strongly to through the entire duration of the month. This intraday level almost exactly marks the monthly level from the prior chart (black). We're coming up on the close and whether price closes above or below this level may well determine where Bitcoin heads in the coming month.
After a pretty brutal rejection last week, Bitcoin rallied all the way back up and looked poised to engulf the prior bearish engulfing candle. However, it looks as though it will be coming up short and unless something changes drastically, this appears to be a bearish re-test.
Given the macroeconomic outlook I'm as bullish as can be on Bitcoin but there's just no sensible HTF longs in this region until $9,700 is regained on a closing basis and given the context of a lower high even waiting for a close above $10,200 may be wise. Although I'm actively trading, I'm not looking for long-term plays until those are reclaimed or I can buy in the high-$7000's.
Support: $8,900, $8,200-8,550
Ethereum has been undeniably bullish as of late and you could make the argument it's dragging the market with it, especially majors. It's cleared monthly resistance at $218 and is well clear of the weekly consolidation range. However, it's still struggling with the macro-mid-range level that rejected it just one month ago so certainly not in the clear. I'm super bullish on ETH but I expect we pull back here.
I've been keeping a close eye on Bitcoin dominance lately and it's paid off, we've had a nice window for alts to run and I've been playing them heavily. Majors in particular (ADA, VET, etc.) have had huge runs. However, as it stands BTC dominance is bouncing from it's uptrend line and holding here would be quite bearish for alts over the next week or so. I do have positions in XTZ, BCH, NEO, LTC, XLM, BAT and other smaller caps which look incredibly bullish to me but I'm constantly moving stops up in order to prevent big losses.
For more frequent updates on altcoin setups be sure to follow me on Twitter - unfortunately the outlook on alts can change so quickly that posting setups here and not updating them for a week rarely works out well.
As always, I'm trading BTC on Bybit which remains the undisputed best option for trading Bitcoin with leverage in my opinion. They are currently offering up to $90 bonus for new sign-ups so if you want to learn more you can also read my full review of Bybit.
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