Last week I talked about the series of lower highs and that I was bearish below $12,000. Well, price broke above that level but quickly ran out of steam and ultimately set up a lower high on the daily chart. Since then, price has revisited $10,000 and bearish scenarios seem to outweigh bullish ones. Let's take a look.
The weekly chart shows some ugly rejections to the topside and clear failure to hold above $12,000. The short-term picture at this level is hard to paint as anything but bearish; however, Bitcoin has been extremely bullish and in an uptrend pullbacks are part of the market. So to be clear, I'm short-term bearish below $12,000 but mid-long term I'm extremely bullish and will be an active dip buyer.
So where am I looking for dips? Right now $8,400-8,800 looks like the sweet spot to me which lines up with the one period of weekly consolidation of this run as well as the 0.5 fib and likely the weekly 21 EMA. I intend to start scaling in there if the market continues to pullback and will add on the way down as necessary. If BTC starts to gain traction above $11,500 I'll consider bullish scenarios.
The daily chart is the one that I see a clear bullish scenario on, though the bearish ones remain more likely in my opinion. However, we can see a potential pennant forming if Bitcoin holds the recent lows and if this were to continue to form I would quickly flip my bias to bullish. Lose the recent lows and this scenario is invalidated and I expect low $9,000's to follow swiftly.
Support: $9,400, $10,000
It's been a while since I've posted about Ethereum, and for good reason. After finally breaking that $280 level, price ran way up to $360 before getting shot down and sold off in a big way last week. ETH is in a precarious position here after losing $230 which signified a break in market structure. That being said, it's sitting right above support so in theory offers a nice setup, but not one I'm taking. Altcoins continue to bleed and in the recent BTC sell-off, they actually lost value in comparison which is a bit of a trend shift. Personally have little interest in Ethereum at this level, going to watch and see what it does over the coming days or weeks. A nice run up from here to close the week well above $230 with a long lower wick might make me interested.
Litecoin is another one I haven't talked about lately and it's pretty clear people sold off well in advance of the halving. After last week's $30 sell-off, it's in the same position as Ethereum is having lost a key structural level yet sitting right above support. I'd need to see $92 reclaimed before remotely considering a position and with the halving coming up in just a few weeks I actually expect more sell-off. That being said, I wouldn't rule out another push up prior to that.
Resistance: $92, $100
That's it for this week - if you want more regular content, be sure to follow me on Twitter. Decide to trade Bitcoin based on my charts above? Do me a favor and register at Bitmex, Binance (margin trading coming soon!) or Bybit which is currently offering up to $60 bonus for new sign-ups.
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