Bitcoin Retraces Entire Crash
It's been quite a while since my last Bitcoin update, pretty much a full two months in fact. The last time I posted I was extremely bearish after a sharp drop to $8,500 and had exited almost all my Bitcoin positions; not long after price completely nuked, dropping into the $3,000's. Here we are, 2 months later and price is sitting right back in the upper $8,000's as if nothing had happened. Overall I handled the move down quite well - dumped all crypto exposure between $8,500 and $9,500 - but didn't catch much in the way of shorts past $8,500. On the way back up, I was extremely cautious given external market circumstances and really couldn't see much of a sustained move to the upside so can't claim I took advantage of this massive move back up. I did buy some Bitcoin between $4,800 - $5,200 but nowhere near the amount I would have in other circumstances. Once BTC closed above $6,200 I started to re-evaluate my bias but it wasn't until around $7,400 that my analysis was telling me we were clearly bullish and I started to look for longs. Now that we've gone as high as $9,500 what do the charts say?
This weekly close is a big one with Bitcoin moving nearly $2,000 and reclaiming the 20 week moving average, which as you can see on the chart has been a catalyst for sustained momentum to the upside. I like to keep things simple - a close above the 20 week MA is undeniably bullish and makes me long-biased. That being said, there's a couple big hurdles on the chart in this area including the downtrend line from $20,000, weekly resistance between $9,400 - $9,600 and the monthly resistance at $9,250. Price also just barely closed above the mid-range and the weekly $8,500 level, but the fact it did manage to hold above is a positive sign.
Given these factors I'm not looking for longs at the current price, but I am definitely looking for longs a bit lower down. A re-test of the 20 week moving average and weekly support around $7,800 would be the ideal situation and I'll be bidding there but given the close above the mid-range I'm not sure Bitcoin retraces that deep. Therefore I'll also be spreading bids higher between $7,900 and $8,100 which aligns with the 200 day moving average, and possibly some smaller bids as high as $8,350.
There's still a ton of uncertainty in the global economy and Bitcoin isn't immune to what happens in the macro picture but the main thing to take away is that sometimes keeping things simple is the most effective way to trade. As long as price holds the 20 week moving average and the 200 day moving average, as a trader and investor I believe I should be long-biased and a re-test of those is a major buying opportunity. Lose those levels and I'll flip to a short bias.
As always, I'm trading BTC on Bybit which remains the undisputed best option for trading Bitcoin with leverage in my opinion. They are currently offering up to $90 bonus for new sign-ups so if you want to learn more you can also read my full review of Bybit.
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