Last week the theme was continuation of the bearish momentum after Bitcoin revisited the low $9,000's. However, early into the week bullish signals started to show up as I mentioned on Twitter:
Hopefully everyone follows me there as I flipped bias and bought back the vast majority of what I had previously sold off. It's important to stay fluid whenever trading an asset like crypto, no matter how bearish the higher timeframes looked, the bullish signals started to surface on the lower timeframes and it carried momentum through to the weekly which just closed with a bullish engulfing candle. So let's see what the charts say now.
Bitcoin never truly lost the weekly support which started at $9,500 but it sure looked dicey for a while. Price quickly rallied above the major resistance at $10,200 and cleared the monthly open and is showing signs of bullish continuation after the weekly close. That being said, if you're not in from lower this probably isn't the time to buy. $11,500-12,000 remains staunch resistance and a rejection there could quickly cause me to flip bearish once again. However, a close above $12,000 and I think new highs are in the cards.
The Bitcoin daily chart is another reason I caution people looking to buy at these levels. First of all, BTC has seen 6 consecutive days of green and after running more than $2,000 I'd expect a pullback in the near future. Furthermore, price has formed a nice channel on the daily and there's both a bullish and bearish side to it. On the bullish side, this could be considered a bull flag and a breakout would surely lead to new highs. On the bearish side, price is nearing the top of the channel and if Bitcoin is going to be rejected, it's likely at this junction of the top of channel and weekly resistance. If rejected, a trip to the bottom of channel would line up with the mid to low $8,000's, which you know was my target to deploy most of my capital.
Best course of action is to sit and wait to see the reaction in the $11,500-12,000 region and either jump in on a close above or re-test, or hedge if it's rejected. Last thing of note, this rise has been on very weak volume, another reason to be cautious. However, price has officially broken the series of lower highs so if I were to take a bet I would expect further upside and a pullback to the high $10,000's near the monthly open could present a good buying opportunity.
I haven't covered altcoins much as of late and for good reason. The vast majority of alts have been slaughtered by Bitcoin's rise and although there are outliers such as LINK, REN, SEELE, CHR, etc. in most cases it simply hasn't been worth the gamble. There is one altcoin I have been picking up in small quantities as a longer term play. I'll share the chart but know that I can't really advocate buying any altcoins at this point in time.
I bought most of my bag of Bitmax in the blue box on the trendline re-test and intend to hold this for the longer term provided price doesn't give me a reason to bail on it. I'm a fan both from a technical and fundamental perspective and believe Bitmax could be a major exchange in the future.
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