The Bitcoin Weekly Range
A few hours shy of weekly close here but Bitcoin just saw a pretty dramatic $300 sell-off and I'm not expecting anything to shift drastically before close. The main thing I want to call out this update is looking at the clear range formed on the weekly (and daily chart as well) and how the way price has interacted with it suggests what's next.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart
Bitcoin has formed a clearly defined weekly range from $7,625 - $8,738 which neatly encompasses the major down move in June; this range is also perfectly anchored by key supports and resistances on the daily chart. The other day Bitcoin rocketed up from the lows and I was admittedly caught offside as I was expected the lows of the range down at $7,625 to be swept; luckily my stops were well in profit. However, at the end of this upward move there was a strong rejection from the range highs and price has journeyed back down since. Now what happens when price forms a range and the stops at one end are taken, while the other end remains untapped? Most of the time price visits the opposite end of the range to take stops there as well which would suggest Bitcoin hits $7,600 at some point. This is never a guarantee and I'm not trading in expectation of it; I'm almost completely flat right now aside from my scheduled weekly spot buys.
For now this is largely a no trade zone for me. I'm bearish-biased as long as price stays under the monthly open around $8,300 but so far the 100 week moving average continues to hold as support. My targets to start buying in (high $6,000's - $7,250) aren't that far from current price so I'll only jump into shorts if it's a clear setup for me, which may form a few hours after weekly close. I'm also open to flipping bullish, at least until $9,500 or so, if Bitcoin can close above $8,600, clear the 200 day moving average or show some convincing buy signals on the 4H and daily charts. If I were to guess an outcome though I'd be betting on the range lows being taken out.
Support: $8,000 and the 100 week moving average below that
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