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Bitcoin Weekly Update 11-24-2019

Updated: Feb 22, 2020

Bitcoin loses $7k, bulls nowhere in sight

Last time around I said that if Bitcoin closed more than two days below the 50 DMA or lost the $8,200-8,300 range that it would revisit at least $7,400-7,600; a week later and BTC just closed sub-$7,000 and there hasn't been a bounce in sight. What now?

Bitcoin Weekly Chart

BTC Weekly 11-24-2019

The prior week closing below the weekly mid-range was the first sign of trouble for Bitcoin and it followed up by dumping straight through the only support structure that remained from $7,300-7,600 and has officially set a lower low. There's no denying it, weekly market structure is bearish and it seems the massive candle we saw a few weeks ago was driven purely by China speculation and had no impact on overall market direction. The weekly chart tells me we're heading for $5,850 and I wouldn't put low $5,000's out of the picture either. I don't like to try to predict bottoms but if I had to guess, I think it will take out the range lows at $5,850 and find support from the 200 weekly MA again, somewhere in the $5,300-5,600 range depending how long it takes to get down there.

Shorter term, I think a bounce is due soon (though I've said that for a while now) but any rejection in the $7,300-7,800 range would be a clear short opportunity. That being said, I am a long-term spot buyer below $7,000 and will continue to dollar-cost-average on a weekly basis.

Support: Some support in around $6,400 but main support lies $5,850-6,100

Resistance: $7,600-7,800 should be a major obstacle now

Bitcoin Daily

Bitcoin Daily 11-24-2019

Only want to call out one thing on the daily chart and that is Bitcoin is losing this major $7,000 support level and is on the verge of losing the trendline support from the last market bottom. There's not a ton of support here on the daily and I expect price to head down to $6,400's in short order.

The Gold Fractal Revisited

Gold Fractal Revisited

The pump fueled by Chinese speculation definitely threw this fractal off, but if you can erase that from your memory there is still a chance this pattern holds up. Price forms a descending triangle and experiences a significant breakdown, bounces within the vicinity of a major support cluster four times, each slightly lower than the last, before giving out on the 5th touch. Price then makes a set of bearish re-tests and finds a final bottom right at the level where Gold made it's last major impulse down before the relentless move up. However, a lot of buyers were watching the major support cluster and key level at $1,000 and price never quite made it there. So what if this scenario plays out with Bitcoin?

BTC-XAU Fractal

It doesn't line up perfectly and I'm certainly not building a trading plan around it but it merits watching in my opinion. Just like most bottom callers were looking for $3,000 last time around, only for price to miss it by a few hundred dollars, we could see the bottom put in slightly higher than expected.

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