BTC Closes Above 12k For First Time Since January 2018

It's been a while since a Bitcoin update but this week definitely calls for it. This week, BTC closed at $13,045 marking it's first weekly close above 12k since January 2018. It also an indisputable higher high on the weekly chart. There's a lot that could happen in the macro picture given the upcoming US election, continued uncertainty around COVID vaccines, global tension and more, however Bitcoin looks poised for a strong run, particularly considering the recent strength show in spite of weakness appearing in both gold and legacy markets. Without further ado, let's take a look at the chart.


Bitcoin Weekly Chart

This range I've had marked on my chart for as long as I can remember has at last been broken to the topside. I remain insanely bullish provided two criteria remain true:


1) Bitcoin does not close back inside this range (no closes below $11.5k region)

2) Bitcoin does not lose the 20 week moving average (currently just below former range highs)


Simple, high time-frame criteria for invalidation.


Now we are approaching the main resistance prior to $20k which is just shy of $14k and I do expect that to halt momentum at least temporarily, and a retrace from that point may well be the best buying opportunity for the remainder of the year. Bitcoin has not offered dip buyers a chance to join the rally since breaking $11k and although my main plan is to add heavily on a re-test of $12-12.5k, my expectation is it takes a run at $14k before that happens. Time will tell.


Support: $11.5k-12k, $12.5k

Resistance: $13.8k-14.2k


Ethereum Weekly Chart


I want to preface this by saying I'm incredibly bullish on Ethereum and have existing longs from the $370's that I intend to add to between $390-405 if given the opportunity. However, this week I want to look at the ETH/BTC chart which is suggesting BTC is probably going to be the stronger asset in the short term and in general, that has been true - Bitcoin has been king the last few weeks.

ETH/BTC is demonstrating a pretty obvious rounded top and has broken down from the uptrend line, both in price and RSI. 0.026-0.028 is arguably the most important level on the ETH/BTC chart and would be an incredible long opportunity prior to ETH 2.0. I do think ETH continues to display weakness in the next week or two and ultimately finds it way to this level.


Litecoin Weekly Chart

Litecoin had a massive, massive week after the Paypal news. It successfully smashed through the critical $50 level and at this stage any pullbacks sub-$55 are a clear below with invalidation on a weekly close below $50.


Summary


I haven't been this optimistic about Bitcoin since 2017, though of course things can (and do) change rapidly. I've outlined my criteria to maintain a bullish bias above. ETH is going to be huge heading into 2021 but is likely to show weakness against BTC in the coming weeks. LTC looks strong and pullbacks are for buying.


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