Going to try something a little different for this post. Rather than sharing a high-level TA update for Bitcoin I'm going to share the exercise I take on a weekly basis, the one which defines my market outlooks and the types of trades I may look to take. This is a top-down analysis of trends, market structure and levels from the weekly down to the 2H time-frame. Would love to hear feedback on which approach you prefer, and this is definitely a more time-intensive write-up so please, if you like this format reach out to me on Twitter or send me an email.
Bitcoin is above the 21/20 ma's and above key $8400 level (recently re-tested), as well as the macro range mid at $8800 (also recently re-tested); all of this makes me bullish-biased. However, failure to gain traction above $9400 weekly resistance and historic downtrend is concerning, especially given it's still a lower high on weekly chart which suggests market structure has not yet shifted. Spot long but safest to wait for weekly close above $9400 before looking more aggressively for longs.
Bias: Bullish but cautious
BTC is above the 200 moving averagess and 20/21 moving averages, as well as holding critical 9300 level for now. Potential lower high forming which is concerning but all other factors point to bullish market structure. Clear invalidation isn't until below 8k given the 200 moving averages but a loss of 9300 the 20 dma or the uptrend line would be alarm bells.
On the 4H the ATR is intact and would probably take a close below 7800 to wipe out. Key moving averages are running between 8100-8400. Bounced from bottom of channel, difficult to be bearish until that's lost. However, lower high warrants first signs of caution and we may get a close back inside the range which would suggest a trip back into $8000's.
Bias: Bullish, but leaning towards pullback
2H ATR flipped bearish a while back, unlikely to flip bullish until we get a close above $10,000. Coming up on back to back closes within range suggesting short-term downside.
ETHUSD is above 21/20 moving averages which were recently re-tested. Sitting in lower half of major macro range, range low at $130, mid at 278. Local resistance sits at 230 which rejected price, support sits at $190 but ETH is struggling to hold; close below would likely flip bias to neutral or neutral-bearish. ETH-BTC weekly looks to have already lost support making a case this may flip to bearish sooner than later.
Bias: Neutral-Bullish but hanging by a thread
ETHUSD is above the 200 ema/dma which makes me favor longs. However, Ethereum lost the 20/21 ma's which are beginning to spread as a result of recent volatility. Needs to regain these ma's otherwise it starts to look like a bearish re-test. Same idea with the daily trendline, has been flirting with losing it the last few days. $192 has been a pretty critical level for ETH for a while, losing it will be concerning. Could be a pretty critical daily close.
Bias: Neutral-Bullish but close to invalidation
ETHUSD 4H ATR intact (close below $178 invalidates), 4H 200 ma's intact (clustered around $190) and acting as support. However, lost the trendline since march lows, bearishly re-tested and moving down. $190-195 support looking battered - leaning bearish, close below $190 would confirm.
ATR flipped bearish a while back and won't flip bull until a close above $215. Trendline bearish re-test even clearer. Nothing bullish here.
Hopefully everyone enjoyed this format - again if you did, please let me know otherwise I likely won't invest the time going forward.
Bitcoin remains bullish across almost all time-frames but the lower high warrants a healthy dose of caution. Ethereum on the other hand is hanging on by a thread; lower time frames are headed to clear bearishness and higher time frames are close to invalidation for bullish arguments. Good R/R I suppose but I'd rather be in Bitcoin right now.
As always, I'm trading BTC on Bybit which remains the undisputed best option for trading Bitcoin with leverage in my opinion. They are currently offering up to $90 bonus for new sign-ups so if you want to learn more you can also read my full review of Bybit.
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