Weekly close is in and unless the market is setting up an epic bear trap, there looks to be bearish re-tests and macro break downs on the daily and under for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Let's jump into the charts.
The Bitcoin weekly chart is really clear. We have the downtrend line from all-time high's and weekly resistance at $9,600, both of which BTC was rejected from. Furthermore OBV leveled off over the last few weeks suggesting at least stalling momentum. Therefore, it's pretty clear to me that while price trades below $9,600 on the weekly time-frame shorts are the more favorable option. There's a ton of support in the $8,200-8,500 region and I expect if/when price breaks down there's a strong reaction there. However, given the length of time consolidating up here I don't think that's a final bottom - but as always, let's keep this level to level. If $8,200 gives out the mid-$7,000's look likely.
The daily time frame is where the bearish re-test and break in structure start to surface. $9,150-9,300 has been a critical level for the past several months and going all the way back to June 2019 and it was just lost, as was the monthly support around $9,250 which is a bearish sign heading into the monthly close. Today there was a bearish re-test of that broken support and if it holds, I expect the market to move down to the range lows from $8,550-8,625 over the next few days. OBV has also broken every uptrend as additional confirmation. I could see a retracement to $9,250 or even as high as $9,550 but as long as there are no significant closes back above $9,300 this looks incredibly bearish. If the range lows don't hold I expect quite a bit of downside for Bitcoin given the length of time spent in this range.
Resistance: $9,150-9,300 as well as $9,600 and $9,800
Ethereum broke down from the daily range it's been in since early June and appears to be setting up a bearish re-test. The chart here looks incredibly clear to me - take back $225 ASAP or $200 is inbound. Lose that and I suspect we see $150 Ethereum.
Support: $215, $205 Resistance: $225, $230
If Bitcoin doesn't just outright roll-over here, I am expecting a few hundred dollar retrace to a max of $9,500 or so but the market may not give much of a retrace therefore I'm already partially filled on a short. Thinking SPX open Monday might dictate that. Given my bearish outlook on both BTC and Ethereum my altcoin exposure is minimal at the moment.
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