Bitcoin clear of critical $9,500 level, alts continue to take off
Last week I called out $9,500-9,600 as a critical level for Bitcoin and it was the line in the sand between BTC and a higher high on the weekly chart. Well, it cleared it and actually closed the week above $10,000, thus achieving a higher high. With that in tow, plus the weekly 20 moving average and daily 200 moving average sitting below, there's really not a bear case for Bitcoin in the near future unless something drastically changes.
Meanwhile, alts are making 100%+ moves, something not really seen since 2018. Hopefully everyone has managed to lock in some profits but the good news if you haven't is that these moves seem far from done; we may truly be kicking off the next crypto bull market. Be smart though, the rug has a tendency to get pulled out precisely when everyone is euphoric. With that in mind, let's take a look at a few charts.
That's a higher high on the weekly chart, clear as day. As I said it's important to play things level to level and now that $9,600 has been reclaimed that becomes my primary level for invalidation. That doesn't mean I'm not interested in longing if price goes below that, but for new and current positions I'll be looking for exists on a weekly close back below that. Now the next logical resistance on the weekly chart coincides with the range highs from $11,500-11,800. This sets up an extremely attractive trade opportunity: if a loss of $9,600 is my level of invalidation I can set bids for a re-test in that region with a target of $11,500. Although I've already entered a partial position given the magnitude of the close, that would be my ideal scenario heading into this coming week.
Support: $9,400-9,600 plus the 200 dma just below $9,000
Resistance: There are minor levels closer but $11,500 is the major one
Initially ETH lagged behind BTC and other majors but it sure made up for it last week. It looks incredibly strong and is on the verge of smashing through the last major weekly level before $280ish but I have a feeling it retraces here. It's quite extended, especially on the daily, and I'm looking to long pullbacks in the $190-212 region for a long-term position. If that opportunity doesn't present itself I'll likely look for a weekly close above $230.
$80 is about the only level that stands between LTC and $100+ at this point. Safest bet is to wait for a weekly close above it but I'm already long from lower and would add on a re-test of $72. For now my main target is around $110.
BAT is my largest altcoin position right now and hopefully the above chart makes it abundantly clear. This probably isn't the ideal level to jump in as there's a potential for a double top on the weekly but the clean break above $0.26 with volume to back it up is a strong indicator that this makes a bigger move soon. Look for pullbacks in the $0.25-$0.26 region or wait for a close above $0.275.
If it's really alt-season that likely means an influx of volume to exchanges with the best alt offerings, and it doesn't get better than Binance. Been gradually adding to this position for weeks and it finally paid off, smashing both weekly levels and setting a clear higher high.
When alts start popping, look for those setting up clear bottoms that haven't yet taken off - that's where the most gains are. One of my favorites is ALGO which has now closed above the 200 day moving average and a close above $0.35 would be a strong statement that the bottom is in. I'm long since $0.24 but this is one that's good to enter now with invalidation being a close below the 200 day moving average or $0.30.
ZIL is another great example and it has volume to back it up. Broke daily resistance and regained the 200 day moving average. If you look at the weekly chart there's pretty much thin air until 200 sats and the major weekly level isn't until 350 sats. Considering ZIL currently trades at 80 sats I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2-3x in the coming months if these alt trends keep up.
The Bitcoin bear case is non-existent unless something radically changes. I'm not ruling out a decent correction but as long as $9,600 is maintained on a weekly close I'm feeling incredibly bullish. I'll be looking for a re-test of that level and targeting $11,500 as the next resistance. If $9,600 is lost my ideal scenario is setting a higher low in the ballpark of $8,500-8,900 - mid $8,000's are critical for the bulls to hold.
Meanwhile I have far more altcoin exposure than I've had in years. The risk-reward here is huge and many have shown just how far they can move once they get going. Keep your risk management in check but it's definitely worth increasing alts exposure on dips. I've posted plenty of altcoin charts on my Twitter, make sure to follow me there.
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